5 biggest survey blunders PULSE ASIA, SWS SHOW INCONSISTENT NUMBERS

By Manny Piñol

I have always been skeptical of the numbers supplied by the so-called polling firms, especially when it comes to political issues.

However, I would be a hypocrite if I would not admit that along with many others, I also eagerly awaited the survey figures of the two major survey firms in the country – Pulse Asia and Social Weather Stations – on the Filipino people’s preferred Presidential candidate in the 2016 elections.

Pulse Asia which released its survey numbers ahead of SWS showed Senator Grace Poe on top with 30%, followed by Vice President Jejomar Binay with 22%, Mayor Rody Duterte with 15%, and Secretary Manuel Roxas III and former President, now Manila Mayor, Joseph Estrada with 10%.

I am not a social scientist but I tried to interpret the numbers and found logical explanation on how the percentages of preference were distributed.

Sen. Poe’s meteoric rise could be attributed to two things: 1. the endless attacks on VP Binay which greatly eroded public support for him and which in turn was transferred to Poe; 2. the recent attacks on Poe’s citizenship focusing mainly on her being a foundling and an adopted child which drew sympathy from the Filipinos who love sob stories and soap operas.

VP Binay’s fall from a high of 46% to only 22% according to Pulse Asia was expected. In fact, I was even surprised that he still has that much support.

Moving around the country and talking to people, including big political leaders, I believe that the Vice President is totally out of the contest and there is no way he could bounce back unless he could convince the Filipino people by showing hard evidence that he is not corrupt.

Mayor Duterte’s modest rise from 12% to 15% is understandable given the fact that his continued declaration that he is not interested in running for the Presidency has disappointed many of his prospective supporters and has left many political backers hanging in the balance.

President Estrada’s and Secretary Roxas’ numbers are consistent with public sentiment – President Erap has consistently said he is not interested while Sec. Roxas is a bland political figure who does not have the connect with the “masa” and has offended so many political leaders because of his brashness.

What surprised me, however, were the figures in the SWS survey.

The SWS survey conducted from June 5 to 8, showed Sen. Poe was chosen by 42 percent of the 1,200 adult respondents nationwide asked to name their three choices to succeed Aquino, indicating an 11-percentage point increase from the 31% in March.

Binay fell from 36% in March to 34% in June.

Sec. Roxas, the presumptive standard-bearer of the ruling Liberal Party, came in third the SWS survey earning 21% from 15%in March.

Mayor Duterte placed fourth in the survey with 20%, rising from 15% in March.

The SWS figures, never mind if they do not conform with the public perception of Binay, Poe, Duterte and Roxas, looked so ridiculous that a keen eye would easily spot glaring inconsistencies.

The 11%-point jump of Sen. Poe is simply incredible unless we are involved in that popular “Peria” game Jumping Horse.

The negligible 2%-point fall of VP Binay does not connect with the public disgust bordering on hate for the former Makati Mayor who is now facing plunder charges.

Mayor Duterte’s 5% rise in the ratings is again understandable because while he had been ranked No. 1 by the surveys conducted by major Metro Manila radio networks, his continued denial of his intention to run for President is taking its toll on prospective voters’ preference.

But what was really ridiculous in the SWS survey figures was the inexplicable jump of Sec. Roxas from a tie for third with Mayor Duterte at 15% in March to 21% in June.

This is not just inconsistent with the Pulse Asia survey figures which ranked Sec. Roxas at 4th with only 10% but this is simply unrealistic given the fact that there was no significant issue involving the DILG secretary during the survey period which could have helped him to 3rd place.

Also, how could there be an 11% point difference in Roxas’ popularity in the Pulse Asia and SWS survey?

This glaring anomaly in the survey statistics brings back to the table the call I made a few months ago for an audit of the companies and groups conducting political surveys.

Unlike in Great Britain which has the British Polling Council (BPC) which oversees the conduct of political surveys, in the Philippines, almost anybody could just form a group, conduct a survey involving only 1,200 respondents to gauge the sentiments of 101 million Filipinos and feed the results of their pseudo surveys to the media.

This is dangerous in a fledgling democracy like the Philippines because it could shape the minds of the voters and the decision makers.

A false survey could result in flawed electoral preferences given the “bandwagon” phenomenon during the elections and it could even influence the President into making wrong decisions.

Poll surveys could be corrupted and even if these are done by the most well-meaning companies wanting to gauge public sentiment on critical issues, these could be faulty.

The last perfect example was in the recent Parliamentary elections in Great Britain when polling firms predicted a neck and neck battle between the Conservative and Labour Parties, warning even of a hung-parliament.

The survey firms ended up with red faces as the Conservatives handily won the most number of seats in the House of Commons.

The BPC immediately called for an immediate re-assessment of the way polling firms conduct their political surveys.

Are the survey figures of Pulse Asia and SWS based on the responses of only 1,200 respondents reliable?

Nope. Not in your dreams.

In fact, there are even ethical questions over the way they conduct the surveys because of the fact that a political group could commission them to conduct a survey for a fee.

These surveys are not pro bono efforts by the survey firms but business undertakings.

Polling surveys in the Philippines is big business and what do they say should be done in conducting a successful business endeavour?

Always satisfy your customer because the customer is always right.

Here, I am sharing with the readers of this page a link to the Constitution Daily blogsite which published the five biggest political poll blunders in U.S. history.

This will help readers understand that even the most respected political polling firms could misjudge public sentiment even when the respondents reach up to 2-million in a country of only 200-million citizens in 1948.

What more for Philippine political polling firms which only rely on a sampling of 1,200 respondents out of the 101-million population of the country?

Did they even talk to the Yakans in Basilan, the Higaonons in Bukidnon, the Ivatans in Batanes, the Mangyans in Mindoro, the Kaenkaneys in the Mountain Province, the Ibanags in Isabela and Warays in Leyte?

The Pulse Asia and SWS survey figures would make good conversation subjects over cups of coffee rather than be a true gauge of the sentiments of 101-million Filipinos.

(Photo credit: Re-elected American President Harry S. Truman displays the embarrassing issue of the Chicago Daily Tribune which announced his defeat to Republican Thomas Dewey in 1948 based on an erroneous poll survey. Photo downloaded from Constitutional Daily blogsite)