Fearless forecast 2016 ELECTIONS MATCH-UP: IT’S DUTERTE VERSUS ROXAS

By Manny Piñol

When the proverbial chaff is separated from the grain and when all the pre-fight noise dies down, the 2016 Presidential Match-up will be between the administration’s bet, Mar Roxas, and the unwilling candidate, Davao City Mayor Rody Duterte.

This fearless forecast will be met with raised eyebrows and even howls of protest from political pundits.

People will ask: What about Vice President Jejomar Binay and survey frontrunner Senator Grace Poe?

Here is why I believe the 2016 Presidential contest will just be a one-on-one match-up between Roxas and Duterte:

Erstwhile survey leader Vice President Binay will fall by the wayside as Election Day nears.

Hounded by allegations of massive corruption and facing plunder charges, Binay’s dream to be President of the Philippines is a dead duck in the water.

Binay and his well-oiled PR machine could make a lot of noise and project him as the oppressed candidate of the poor but these temporary distractions could not be sustained in the face of the very serious issues of corruption which are now slowly but surely creeping into the consciousness of the ordinary Filipino.

With barely two months before the filing of the certificate of candidacy, Binay still has to find his running mate; his money in the banks and assets have been ordered frozen by the courts; his major political ally, Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada, has abandoned him; and major funders have disappeared.

Survey leader Senator Grace Poe is left with only one option: to be the Vice Presidential candidate to administration bet Mar Roxas.

Insisting on running for President and refusing President Aquino’s offer to be the VP to Roxas could result in a political disaster for the neophyte senator.

I have talked to so many legal experts and even ordinary lawyers and they all agree that the citizenship and residency issues being raised against Senator Poe are very serious legal concerns.

While her being a foundling who was later on adopted by movie couple Fernando Poe Jr. and Susan Roces earned sympathy from many Filipinos resulting in very high ratings in the surveys, this same issue could be raised against her when she goes up against Malacañang’s presumptive bet, Mar Roxas.

The basis is simple: the Constitutional provision defining who is a “Natural born” Filipino citizen.

The Philippine Constitution says: “Natural-born citizens are those who are citizens of the Philippines from birth without having to perform any act to acquire or perfect their Philippine citizenship. Those who elect Philippine citizenship in accordance with paragraph (3), Section 1 hereof shall be deemed natural-born citizens.”

Paragraph 3 says: “Those born before January 17, 1973, of Filipino mothers, who elect Philippine citizenship upon reaching the age of majority; “

There are no Ifs and Buts on this issue and not even the heart-rending story of her being an adopted child could change the Constitutional definition on who is qualified to run for President.

Another serious issue which will hound Presidential candidate Grace Poe would be her residency because documents have established that she renounced her American citizenship only in 2012.

These issues could still be raised even if she decides to run for Vice President to Mar Roxas but the clout and power Malacañang could work wonders for her.

Mar Roxas is determined to run for President and he will not give way to anybody anymore.

“Sacrifice? I think hindi dapat ako ang tanungin tungkol dyan dahil malinaw ang track record natin na may kakayahan tayo na magsakripisyo, na magparaya alang-alang sa mas malaking objective na pagsulong ng daang matuwid. Thank you very much,” Roxas recently said when asked if he was willing to give way again to accommodate Poe and Escudero in the administration’s ticket.

Duterte, on the other hand, is starting to burn his bridges with the administration as a reaction to the scathing criticisms he has been getting from personalities identified with Malacañang, especially Justice Secretary Leila de Lima.

While he has repeatedly declared that he is not interested in running for President, Duterte clearly understands that even a weakened Binay could easily beat Roxas in a one-on-one match-up.

Duterte, who has kept himself untarnished by issues of corruption in his 23 years of government service, will certainly not allow somebody who is facing serious charges of plunder to become the next President of the Philippines.

This is where Duterte’s statement that he will only run for President when it becomes a “moral obligation” comes in.

All things considered, 2016 will see Grace Poe running for Vice President while Binay, even while he will hobble with issues of corruption, would still pursue his Presidential ambitions.

With Duterte stepping in, however, Binay will be taken out of the picture.

The elections of 2016 will see Malacañang’s bet, Mar Roxas, going up against the people’s candidate Rody Duterte.

This early it is easy to conclude who the next President would be.