Who turns in the first gun? PEACEMAKERS MOVE TO DISARM REBELS; BUT WHO WILL TURN IN THE FIRST RIFLE?

By Manny Pinol

On paper, it is such a good copy and a very romantic story.

Imagine reading this piece in the newspapers:

“After decades of bloody conflict which has claimed the lives of tens of thousands in Southern Mindanao, the secessionist Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) has signed peace with the Philippine government.

‘As the next step in the quest to achieve true and lasting peace in Mindanao, the MILF has agreed to a “normalization” process which would involve turning in their firearms and return to their farms in the countryside to lead a new life.”

Beautiful? Dramatic? Romantic?

Yes! Yes! Yes!

Doable? Acceptable? Achievable?

The answer depends on who you ask.

Ask those who were involved in the peace negotiations, those who studied conflict resolution and those who have observed the way bloody civil wars ended in other parts of the world. They will tell you that it is achievable.

But for those who have lived their whole lives in arenas of conflict and those who understand the realities on the ground, disarming the MILF or other rebels groups in Mindanao is a pipe dream.

Here are some troubling facts which support the view of those who believe that disarmament is a far-fetched dream:

Fact 1: The MILF is not the only armed group in the Southern Philippines. In fact, within its own organization, there are groups which may not even be keen on abiding orders to disarm and some of these elements are identified with the late MILF Chairman Hashim Salamat.

Fact 2: There is the MNLF-Nur Misuari wing which has been misbehaving lately because they believe that the peace deal with the MILF effectively repudiates the GRP-MNLF Final Peace Agreement of 1996.

Fact 3: The newly-formed Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) has snubbed the peace process and vowed to continue the struggle for Bangsamoro independence and they will continue to create trouble;

Fact 4: The Abu Sayyaf in Basilan and other islands of Tawi-tawi and Sulu has lately pledged allegiance to the ISIS and this is a group which is very difficult to deal with because it is not even asking for independence but simply dreams of establishing a Pan-Islamic state in Southeast Asia through a campaign of terror;

Fact 5: The Kidnap For Ransom Groups, the plain and simple bandit groups, the Christian vigilantes and even private individuals who have landholdings and businesses to protect.

Fact 6: The political warlords who have running feuds with each other or with the MILF or MNLF and who have enough armaments to fight off any of these groups, not to mention the tacit support of some wayward members of the armed forces and the police.

There is enough guns and armaments in the Southern Philippines to equip the whole Armed Forces of the Philippines. The only war equipment which these groups do not possess could only be fighter planes, naval ships and tanks.

These facts bring us to the following questions:

1. Will the MILF be willing to voluntarily disarm knowing fully well that there are groups like the rogue MNLF of Nur Misuari and the BIFF breathing down their necks?

I have talked to some MILF commanders in the field and they are openly saying that if the coverage of the “normalization” or disarmament is the Bangsamoro Territory, they will have to spirit out their firearms to areas outside the Bangsamoro Territory like North Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat, Saranggani and even South Cotabato.

2. Will the political warlords voluntarily lay down their weapons in spite of the fact that they have running feuds or clan wars with fellow warlords and other armed groups?

Local political warlords I was able to talk to said they could not disarm for as long as their are threats from the BIFF, the KFRG and fellow politicians with whom they have running clan feuds.

3. Will the Christian vigilante groups, including those who own vast landholdings and business interests be willing to disarm in spite of the continuing threats from the KFRG, the BIFF and the Abu Sayyaf?

4. Will the government be able to convince the MILF that when it scales down the number of guns in the hands of its members, the armed forces would be able to protect the group and its political institutions from other rogue elements?

5. Will the government be able to neutralize the Abu Sayyaf, the BIFF, the KFRG and other criminal groups who also possess awesome firepower?

6. And finally, will the political leadership in Malacanang be firm enough to implement the law on loose guns and firearms as soon as the Bangsamoro Basic Law is passed and the Disarmament starts?

To declare that with the signing of the peace agreement with the MILF and the passage of the Bangsamoro Basic Law, peace will come at last to the troubled Southern Philippines is looking at the problem with jaundiced eyes.

There is more to true and lasting peace than just a signed piece of paper.